Unless we change course, the loss of America’s most productive farmland and ranchland to poorly planned development will further threaten our food security, environment, and rural communities. Americans face stark choices in response to this threat, as shown in this web mapping tool. We invite you to explore these choices—and then take action to secure our collective future.
These maps show the results of the geospatial analysis conducted for Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future. American Farmland Trust (AFT) and our partners modeled contrasting development scenarios from 2016 to 2040, along with sea-level rise. The projections build on past rates and patterns of agricultural land conversion documented by AFT, covering 2001-2016. We projected conversion to two land-use types:
The scenarios represent broad policy pathways that the nation might take:
How Americans choose to develop will shape the future of farming:
What do these alternative futures look like in your town, county, or state? How will you, your family, and your community be affected? Use this web mapping tool to find out. For a brief video introduction on how to use the tool, click here.
We hope you use this information to advocate for policies that protect and retain America’s farmland and ranchland. We offer the following policy recommendations:
Note that these maps are not intended to predict the future or to show how development should occur. Instead, they illustrate three potential futures. At the local level, the results should not be evaluated against specific zoning ordinances in precise locations.
American Farmland Trust acknowledges that maps can be misused or cause unintended consequences. There is a risk that land speculators and developers could use these maps to inform their activities, driving poorly planned growth and potentially leading to land dispossession in historically marginalized farming communities. We acknowledge these risks and call on our partners to use these maps to protect our irreplaceable agricultural land and ensure its long-term resiliency—especially in communities of color.
Our technical mapping was provided by Conservation Science Partners and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service provided data, technical support, and financial assistance.
The future of America's farms and ranches is up to all of us. This tool shows that the choices we make today at the federal, state, and local levels will have a real impact on what agriculture looks like tomorrow. Get the latest updates from AFT to learn more about how you can get involved in the fight to save the land that sustains us all.