Assumes greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout this century, which results in a global temperature rise of 4.7-8.6º F for 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005. (Based on Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5)
Assumes greenhouse gas emissions start declining rapidly by 2020, which limits global temperature rise to 0.5-1.3º F for 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005. (Based on Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6)
Over 80% of the cropland in the contiguous U.S. depends on timely and predictable rainfall to provide the water necessary for plant growth.
This web mapping tool provides a glimpse into how rainfed croplands will fare under different climate futures. Although irrigated cropping systems are also critical for food production, they were not the focus of this analysis. Counties that irrigate more than 50% of their cropland were not included in the modeling although some rainfed cropland may be present. These counties are shown in grey on the maps.
Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns will increase the risks for the crops and businesses supported by rainfed croplands. We modeled the likelihood that farmers would still grow their current crop varieties using their present-day production practices by 2040 for rainfed croplands, corn, winter wheat and apples under two contrasting climate scenarios.
To visualize the potential impacts of changes in growing conditions, we first calculated the average likelihood of cultivation for cropland, corn, winter wheat and apple acreage in 2016. We then compared the projected likelihood of cultivation in 2040 to the 2016 average. For areas with below average likelihood of cultivation in 2040, using present day crop varieties and production practices may become increasingly difficult.
The resulting maps show where likelihood values:
Over 80% of the cropland in the contiguous U.S. depends on timely and predictable rainfall to provide the water necessary for plant growth. As the climate changes, these maps begin to help us answer some important questions about what we grow and where:
The projections show what is at stake for our soils, our farmers and ranchers, and the people who depend on them, as the climate continues to warm. This will help us to:
The future of America's farms and ranches is up to all of us. This tool shows that the choices we make today at the federal, state, and local levels will have a real impact on what agriculture looks like tomorrow. Get the latest updates from AFT to learn more about how you can get involved in the fight to save the land that sustains us all.